--- title: "Prediction Market" date: 2026-04-06 author: "Olga Tarasova" categories: - name: "Expertise" url: "https://metalamp.io/expertise.md" --- # Prediction Market # Development of a Prediction Market platform Launch a prediction market with clear rules and fair resolution. We will design the architecture and build the product from scratch: smart contracts, oracles, backend, interface, monitoring. [Get a consultation](#modal_for_form_without_textarea) Prediction Market have been a major trend in recent years. According to CertiK and CoinGecko, the total annual notional volume grew from $15.8B in 2024 to $63.5B in 2025 (≈+303% year-over-year). What was recently seen as a niche mechanism has become one of the most talked-about narratives in 2025. ![](https://metalamp.io/images/prediction-market/look-1.png) ![](https://metalamp.io/images/prediction-market/look-2.png) ![](https://metalamp.io/images/prediction-market/look-3.png) ![](https://metalamp.io/images/prediction-market/look-4.png) ![](https://metalamp.io/images/prediction-market/look-5.png) ## Basic MVP functionality ![](https://metalamp.io/images/prediction-market/functional-icon-1.svg) ### Authorization Login to the product via wallet. Email and social networks can be added as an optional method or for notifications, but the core is wallet-based login. ![](https://metalamp.io/images/prediction-market/functional-icon-2.svg) ### Deposit handling Accept deposits and track user balances in the base asset. Example: in Polymarket, USDC on Polygon is used as collateral. You can choose what fits your needs. ![](https://metalamp.io/images/prediction-market/functional-icon-3.svg) ### Event creation Create event markets with parameters (outcomes, deadlines, rules), usually through an admin panel at early stages. ![](https://metalamp.io/images/prediction-market/functional-icon-4.svg) ### Outcome Tokenization, where users receive share tokens After buying a position, the user receives outcome tokens. Example: in Polymarket, these are ERC-1155 tokens based on the Gnosis Conditional Token Framework (CTF). ![](https://metalamp.io/images/prediction-market/functional-icon-5.svg) ### Trading mechanism (i.e. order book) A mechanism for trading tokenized outcomes: limit orders, cancellations, order matching, trade statuses. Example: Polymarket uses a CLOB approach with an API and separate authentication for trading requests. ![](https://metalamp.io/images/prediction-market/functional-icon-6.svg) ### Mechanism responsible for providing a fair outcome for events At the initial stage, we use a centralized oracle alternative. This simplifies the launch and reduces the time and cost of MVP development. For the future, we plan for the possibility of transitioning to a decentralized oracle. ![](https://metalamp.io/images/prediction-market/functional-icon-1.svg) ### Authorization Login to the product via wallet. Email and social networks can be added as an optional method or for notifications, but the core is wallet-based login. ![](https://metalamp.io/images/prediction-market/functional-icon-2.svg) ### Deposit handling Accept deposits and track user balances in the base asset. Example: in Polymarket, USDC on Polygon is used as collateral. You can choose what fits your needs. ![](https://metalamp.io/images/prediction-market/functional-icon-3.svg) ### Event creation Create event markets with parameters (outcomes, deadlines, rules), usually through an admin panel at early stages. ![](https://metalamp.io/images/prediction-market/functional-icon-4.svg) ### Outcome Tokenization, where users receive share tokens After buying a position, the user receives outcome tokens. Example: in Polymarket, these are ERC-1155 tokens based on the Gnosis Conditional Token Framework (CTF). ![](https://metalamp.io/images/prediction-market/functional-icon-5.svg) ### Trading mechanism (i.e. order book) A mechanism for trading tokenized outcomes: limit orders, cancellations, order matching, trade statuses. Example: Polymarket uses a CLOB approach with an API and separate authentication for trading requests. ![](https://metalamp.io/images/prediction-market/functional-icon-6.svg) ### Mechanism responsible for providing a fair outcome for events At the initial stage, we use a centralized oracle alternative. This simplifies the launch and reduces the time and cost of MVP development. For the future, we plan for the possibility of transitioning to a decentralized oracle. [Free consultation](https://calendly.com/iana-g/30min) ## Our cases [See all cases](https://metalamp.io/cases) ## MetaLamp Magazine Expertise is our strong suit. Our articles frequently make it to the top rankings. You can also find our insights in [MetaLamp Magazine](https://metalamp.io/magazine), on our [Telegram channel](https://t.me/+kOQ34KeP7XU4ZWQy) and [X (formerly Twitter)](https://twitter.com/MetaLamp_Web3) ## FAQ - ### What is a prediction market? A prediction market is a platform where users buy and sell positions on the event outcome. The price usually reflects participants’ expectations, and after the event is completed, settlement and payouts take place. - ### How Polymarket works and why it is often used as a reference? Polymarket is a prediction market. You choose an event and buy a position on the outcome (usually «Yes/No»). The position is represented as outcome tokens that are fully collateralized. Trading works «like on an exchange». Users place limit orders, they are quickly matched off-chain, and settlement happens in smart contracts, while funds remain with the user (non-custodial). After the event ends, a fair resolution is required. In Polymarket, the outcome is recorded via the UMA Oracle: anyone can propose a result, it can be disputed, and after finalization, winning tokens can be redeemed for $1, while losing ones become $0. Polymarket is the largest platform that is widely seen as the benchmark in the space, which is why many projects use it as a reference. - ### How a "fair result" is recorded in prediction market platforms? Oracle is usually used to record the outcome of an event and provide a dispute mechanism: the proposed result can be challenged within a defined window, and the dispute goes to arbitration. A common implementation for prediction markets is the UMA Optimistic Oracle v3 approach. - ### Why prediction markets are in the spotlight? At the end of the campaign and during the 2024 US elections, prediction markets became a main source of "live" expectations, because they show not just opinions, but actual bets and real price dynamics. They are valued for measurability: markets have a public track record, forecasts can be compared with actual outcomes, and research on the 2024 elections shows that Polymarket data was in some cases more accurate than polls, especially in swing states. Plus, it’s not only about "predictions": event contracts can also be used as a tool for hedging event-driven risks. - ### What is included in an MVP of a prediction market platform? A minimal MVP that can be launched and tested with users usually includes: authorization, deposits and balance, event creation, outcome tokenization, a trading mechanism, and oracle integration.